October 24, 2008

The House Always Wins In The Great Game: Afghanistan Evaluated

Filed under: Afghanistan — MFunk @ 9:04 am

Alexander, so frustrated by the incessant rebellion in the people of Sogdiana, sank into dark dreams of conspiracy, butchered friends for the sake of his paranoia, and finally slouched his unstoppable army off to the south in search of conquests that might stay conquered.

Not much has changed in Sogdiana, save for the name. It is still factious, conniving, bleak, arduous and ruthless. It just happens to be called ‘Afghanistan’ these days.

Afghanistan is miserable for America. There is a myth that Afghanistan was “the good war,” and that we bestowed some noble gift of liberty on its people by invading. That myth is rapidly withering on the cold slopes of the Hindu Kush.

Women’s rights are appalling - the reports of women only taking their burkhas off for the western media’s cameras were largely true, and the “bee-keeper suit” is still going strong. Suicide, honor-killing and punitive gang rapes are not only common, they are stronger than ever due to the lawlessness and poverty caused by America’s half-hearted war against the Taliban.

A particularly nefarious byproduct of the war was the re-emergence of the Afghanistan opium market. Virtually annihilated by the funless Taliban, our new regime has turned a blind eye to poppy cultivation, and Afghanistan is back on top of the world for drug production.

Afghanistan dominates the drug market, with the highest production of opium in the world–93 percent–and ranks last in terms of human development.

Human development isn’t helped by the fact that many rural Afghans - and Afghanistan is mostly rural - have to take out loans to buy poppy crops to plant, and the only people handing out loans for that high-yield, high-profit harvest are the drug lords. The farmers have nothing to use as collateral, save their daughters. So when the US comes along and napalms a poppy field, it usually directly leads to some pre-adolescent girl being sent to a life of sex slavery under a drug lord.

Now the family can only wait for the 45-year-old drugrunner to come back for his prize. [10 year old] Khalida wanted to be a teacher someday, but that has become impossible. “It’s my fate,” the child says.

Even without the element of loans involved, the abduction of children for sex slavery or organ harvesting has become epidemic.

Toppling the law and order that had been suppressing such activities has had little return for America. After all, we’ve spent the last seven years putting the most hazardous country in the world on a back burner. What did we think would happen when we refused to go into the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan after bin Ladin?

Al-Qaeda is stronger than ever in Pakistan, in terms of organization, recruitment abroad and funding, and is pouring money into. Across the virtually nonexistent border, their Taliban forays control half the country.

This permeation of the Afghan society allows them to employ a nifty new tactic: Using our air strikes to commit their terror bombings. Given that we rely on Afghan militia intelligence to direct our Special Forces air strikes, the Taliban has been masquerading as friendly militias, or using proxies, to call in air strikes on civilians - usually on groups comprised largely of children.

…the Afghan interior ministry issued a statement declaring that “76 people, all civilians and most of them women and children were martyred… 19 women, 7 men and the rest children all under 15 years of age”.

So, the end result of the usual cost-cutting, over-reaching, debt-dependent philosophy of the administration in Afghanistan?

We have success, but it’s only anecdotal.  Our Special Forces can still succeed at narrowly defined missions, just not affect the overall battlefield.  Kabul may be under siege, but it’s getting wealthier.  On the other side of the scales, however, is catastrophe:

Worse treatment of women than ever. Rampant lawlessness and poverty leading to the most depraved practices against children. An al-Qaeda stronger and more global than before 9/11.

The conclusion I draw from this is that occupying Afghanistan is not something to be done by halves.

You don’t just stick an oil company good old boy in power, stifle the press and call it done. You don’t let your enemy have safe haven while underfunding the shoe-string forces you leave in place - just enough hold back the flood. Above all, you don’t stay longer than you have to.

You get the job done, make sure it’s done, and get out. If you stay at the table too long, the house will win. It always wins.

Just ask Alexander.  Just ask the U.S.S.R.

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