Turkey’s government is once again being crushed between Iraq and the hard place of pressure from the west. The attacks on Turkey by the relentless PKK - Kurdish rebels in Turkey with contentious but nevertheless real ties with the ruling Kurdish party in Iraq - have its citizens rightly demanding those responsible be pursued into Iraq and neutralized. The US - which has always regarded Kurdish Iraq as a model of stability in a crucible of strife - has rightly demanded Turkey not make the situation more chaotic by invading. Both sides have good, urgent arguments, but only one can prevail. Which is the right course?

It may surprise some to hear that neither case will be a disaster if handled well, and that both have their merits. If anything, Turkish intervention would have some positives to it that have been lacking from the Iraq War:

First, it would be a Muslim nation involved in fighting terrorism in Iraq. This is something that is long overdue - the view of the world being that Iraq is a western, Christian crusade to institute a vassal state in Islam’s backyard. If Turkey comes in on the side of battling terror, it looks less like a White House delusion.

Secondly, Turkey has significant amounts of troops to devote to this task and, without Saddam to worry about, might actually stand to wipe out the PKK. Whatever the case, al-Qaeda’s use of Kurdistan’s bandit kingdom as a refuge from the surge will be further abbreviated and the thorn of the PKK could be plucked from the common side of Turkey, the Iraqi parliament and the US. Considering how shoe-string troop counts are in Iraq, why not welcome in the second-largest NATO army?

The answer to that brings us to the negatives of a Turkish intervention - the first being that the roads Turkey’s 50,000+ troops will be tromping down will be no longer available to our own effort. It would be a logistical constriction for our military and would add to the confusion Iraq already suffers. This would be especially true if the Turkish military holds to its word, as it has said:

Cicek said Turkey’s sole target, if its troops entered northern Iraq, would be the PKK militants, about 3,000 of whom are believed to be hiding there.

Combating any and all terrorist elements in the tangled web of mercenary northern Iraq is much more realistic and achievable than trying to sift out Kurdish Maoist Nationalists from All-Use Religious Fanatic Al-Qaeda Fighters. These groups hardly share the same bed, but outlaws are outlaws, arms traders are arms traders, and ducking one group while hunting the other will not be easy. It will also mean we and the Turks will have to be careful not to trip over one another, rather than aim to work together.

Turkish intervention is one heavy, edged pendulum, and could certainly swing either way - good or ill. It’s up to the US to encourage cooperation with our NATO ally if they feel that they’re forced to step in, rather to ignore or hinder it for the sake of the Iraqi government. For, regardless of the potential ill of the intervention, this much is certain: Security for that sector can’t be left in the hands of Baghdad. When Turkey last seriously considered stepping over that brittle border, the US defused the situation by having the Iraqi goverment sign a commitment to break the back of the PKK. Absolutely nothing came of it.

And yet the response from Washington last week was merely more of the same:

“PKK violence not only threatens Turkey, but also undermines the security and welfare of Iraq,” U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said in a statement issued Monday evening. “Turkey and Iraq have vowed to collaborate in the fight against terrorism … We call on Iraqi authorities to take effective measures against the PKK.”

It seems a situation where again we are getting the back of the Iraqis and again they cannot measure up to what’s demanded of them. Considering car bombings still shiver Baghdad with regularity and al-Qaeda is not yet entirely contained - not to mention the larger threat of sectarian insurgents - how can we expect the Iraqi security forces to deal with the PKK, one of the largest terrorist factions in the world? Put simply, we can’t - not at this point.

Asking Turkey to wait extends this situation at the expense of Turkish lives, which the PKK are not loath to take en masse. Allowing Turkey to intervene means risking a much greater destabilization. But with the region already being destablized as the PKK opens its attacks against Iran and Iran lashes back. Waiting while the Iraqis get their act together under the miserable leadership of the Dawah party may not be an option for long.

And Washington may soon find itself in a sandwich of its own - having to decide whether it wants a NATO partner with an Army larger than any other hunting terrorists in Iraq, or Iran.